Japan is onto something great with its new back 3 system

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Soccer analysis is often extremely reactionary and results-based, so I thought I’d flip the script a bit and write something in praise of a team that’s lost four games in a row without scoring. The Japan women’s national soccer team has gone down to England, Spain, Brazil and the United States in succession, but it’s a team that’s showing off some very interesting tactical ideas, and I think it’s going to start paying off soon if it stays the course.

For the better part of two decades, Japan has been known for its signature 4-4-2 system, usually with two strikers who are both capable of dropping deep and combining in midfield. It’s helped the team to win the 2011 World Cup, 2012 Olympic silver medal, two Asian Cups, and a ton of youth international tournaments. But recent poor results have necessitated a change in philosophy, and manager Futoshi Ikeda is trying to engineer a pretty dramatic shift.

Japan is playing in a 3-4-3 formation under Ikeda, and they’re taking a lot of risks in it too. Not only is the front three pressing high up the pitch, but the wingbacks and central midfielders are joining in. It leaves large potential gaps for opponents to exploit, but when executed correctly, the system is making it extremely difficult for opponents to play out of the back, and forcing them to play long against Japan’s three center backs.

Despite back-to-back 1-0 defeats, Japan has won the Expected Goals battle in both of its SheBelieves Cup games: 1.32 to 0.88 against Brazil, and 1.17 to 0.65 against the United States, according to WyScout’s xG model. In both games, Japan got more good shots than its opponent, but couldn’t finish, and its opponents both finished the one great chance they generated.

I can hear the Strawman xG Haters I’ve invented in my head already. “Who cares, you have to finish your chances. Scoreboard.” And yes, true. Ultimately, you can’t say a team is good unless it wins games, I understand that’s the point of competitive sports. But if Japan’s staff is trying to figure out whether they should continue to work on what their team has been doing or change course, the fact that they’re getting more and better shots than their opponents is an indicator that they’re onto a good idea. They could make some minor tweaks, but the fundamentals here are sound.

So what is Japan doing well? Glad you asked, Strawman xG Haters.

Pressing structure

You can’t press a back 4 with 3 players, unless you play an unbalanced shift based on where the ball is, which is what Japan does when it’s pressing high. In this screenshot, the center forward is pressuring the ball, the right winger is on the right back, the left winger is on the left center back, and the left back is free.

Japan’s forwards are very good at finding the correct pressing angle to cut off the easy pass to whichever fullback is unmarked. In the event that the opposing center back can make the switch, the wingback on that side steps up, the opposite side wing back drops back, and Japan’s back three shifts to the ball side, temporarily making a back four. The USWNT had a difficult time getting around this.

In the event Japan’s opponent beats the press — or everyone just needs to rest for a couple minutes, because not even the fittest team in the world can high press for 90 minutes uninterrupted — they drop into this 5-4-1 structure.

The personnel Japan plays with allows the team a lot of flexibility to press very aggressively or sit deep in shape depending on the game situation, and they switched between the two very well against the United States.

Buildup

This feels like it’s always going to be Japan’s bread and butter no matter what formation the team plays in, but holy cow is their buildup play out of this formation sexy as hell.

A matchup between a back 3 system and a 4-3-3 naturally creates some great passing lanes for the outside center backs of the back 3 team. The 4-3-3 team’s center forward will naturally gravitate towards marking the central defender, while its wingers will have to track the opponent’s wingbacks, or at least be in position to cut off passing lanes to them. This opens up space for the outside CBs to step up into and gives them some passing lanes that teams playing with a back 4 usually don’t generate.

Japan had a lot of great spells of build up play from the back against the USWNT, but I think this was my favorite one.

Moeke Minami, the left center back, has a great angle into the center due to playing wider than she could if Japan was running a back 4. They eventually work the ball to the more attacking of their two central midfielders, Fuka Nagano, and she makes an incredible play in a tight space here to advance the ball.

Building up on the ground from the back and combining in tight spaces are arguably Japan’s biggest strengths, and this 3-4-3 puts the team in a better position to succeed at those things.

But Japan isn’t winning. Why?

When it goes wrong, it goes WRONG

The USWNT’s lone goal might have been its only huge chance of the game, but there were warning signs that they could hit Japan on the break before that. The biggest example is this one, where Mana Iwabuchi closes down Alana Cook too aggressively, doesn’t win the ball, and Hina Sugita isn’t ready with the second wave of pressure.

Folks. You absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, let Sofia Huerta have this.

The goal came from a similar play where a U.S. defender was able to find the right gap between the Japanese defense and midfield on a long ball forward. Saki Kumagai needs to commit to closing Alex Morgan down aggressively or dropping back towards her own goal very quickly, and ends up doing neither.

If this system has one serious defensive flaw, it’s that it’s too dependant on the central center back to make perfect reads in situations like this. Playing with just two central midfielders — and giving both of them some license to press when they feel they have the opportunity to win the ball — is going to open up some gaps. Kumagai is one of the best players in the world at reading dangerous counter-attacking opportunities and making the right choices, but it might not matter if she gets 99% of her reads correct. It only needs to go wrong one time for the Japanese defense to fall apart.

Still looking for the right No. 9

Riko Ueki is just 23, and had 8 international goals in 2022, but she hasn’t given Japan the presence in the box that they’ve needed over the last couple of games. This moment — which was a sick play by Cook, by the way — has been an extremely common sight.

I don’t want to pick on a young player who’s probably going to get a lot better in the coming years, but this has been the crux of Japan’s problems recently. They play outstanding football in the final third, find their striker’s feet on the edge of the box, and then their striker can’t turn that into a dangerous shot.

I’m not sure there’s an obvious fix in Japan’s player pool. Its best attackers perform at their best as attacking midfielders, wingers, or with strike partners. There just isn’t anyone to be the 9 that they need. Also, I’d like to apologize to any Chelsea men supporters if this section was triggering.

So what’s the right tweak to get this cooking?

My solution for Japan is to basically admit you don’t have a 9 and stop trying to play with one. Here’s the tl;dr:

Mana Iwabuchi is a world class player, but she’s better as a false 9 or attacking midfielder than the striker Japan’s forced her to be previously, or the left winger she was forced to be against the United States. I’d play her through the center and ask her to drop to combine with her midfielders and hopefully draw a center back out of position.

I’d then have the wide players do a lot more vertical running into the vacated space in behind the defense than they’re doing currently. This 3-4-3 system doesn’t create a lot of through ball opportunities due to the lack of a 10, or a lot of cutback opportunities due to the lack of true wingers. The chances come from getting attackers in 1v1s against defenders, and then hopefully beating those defenders. So get talented wingers in some 1v1s on the edge of the box and then Let. Them. Cook.

Instead of playing narrow and combining in midfield, I want Japan’s wingers doing a lot more of this:

Aoba Fujino makes a great run in the clip above (foul btw lol), and is certainly capable of making a big impact whether she’s asked to play narrow or run at people from out wide. But the players I’d like to see in the wide roles against Brazil are Angel City star Jun Endo and U-20 World Cup Golden Ball winner Maika Hamano, who have made a big impact off the bench.

Ueki has 4 shots in 125 minutes, while Fujino has 3 in 192. Hamano and Endo have the same 4 and 3 shots respectively, but in just 65 minutes apiece off the bench. Yes, some of that is due to their roles as subs, coming on against tired defenders, but I also think they’re just better at creating shots for themselves than Japan’s other players. Endo has been playing as a wingback, and she’s good at that role, but I’d love to see her closer to goal to get her more shot opportunities.

If Japan can start getting its wide players running into the box more and use Iwabuchi in a role that suits her a bit better, I think they’re going to start scoring goals. And if they can get on the scoreboard early, I think the clean sheets will come.