An entirely vibes-based guide to the 2025 Tour de France

It’s July, and you know what that means: No one in Europe is going to work. While Americucks are stuck in their offices pretending to care about emails and spreadsheets, Europeans are driving their camper vans around France to get drunk as shit by the side of the road and yell ALLEZALLEZALLEZ at passing cyclists.

Yes, the Tour de France starts on Saturday. If you’re one of the aforementioned Americucks (hey, at least we have air conditioning), the race is going to be on Peacock. If you’re British, I’m sorry about that, and also the race is on ITV and TNT Sports.

If you’re a misandrist and you only like women’s sports, the Tour de France Femmes starts on July 26.

A brief rundown of what the fuck is going on

Many of you reading this are complete sickos who watch potatocam 1.1 races on Tiz every weekend; you are my people and I love you. If that’s you, just skip to the next header. But most people reading this probably haven’t even heard the term “Monument” before and need some help. So here are the basics of what the Tour de France is:

It’s a bike race, if you did not even know that part. 23 teams of 8 riders each start the race. They race a total of 21 stages, averaging about 180km/110 miles each. There’s a mix of terrain — flat, hilly, medium mountain, and big ass mountain stages. The person with the best time at the end wins the general classification, or yellow jersey. There’s a sprint points classification for the green jersey, a mountain points classification for the polka dot jersey, and the under-25 rider with the best time gets the white jersey.

There are like, maybe 10 guys in the race whose main job is to get the best time possible. There are another 10 or so who will be attempting to compete for the other jerseys. The other 160 or so riders have one of two jobs: Help a guy competing for one of those jerseys, or try to win a stage by catching the stars and their teams napping.

The GC will not be interesting; please get over this right now

Tadej Pogačar is going to win the race unless he crashes or gets Covid. While I will be rooting for other riders to keep the general classification fight interesting, I do not want him to crash or get Covid. I don’t even want Republicans to crash or get Covid.

This year’s course has been set up in a way that will allow the commentators to yap about whether or not anyone can beat Pogačar for 11 days. There’s even a good chance that he’s trailing his main competitors going into Stage 12. But the final mountain on that day, Hautacam, is where Pogačar will inevitably nuke the race and show everyone who’s boss. You do not need to recall this blog post and act like I am some Nostradamus-like genius when this happens; it is obvious and anyone who believes anything else is huffing fatal levels of copium. For this reason, trying to do any serious analysis of the race is stupid.

If you want to be any variety of cycling fan other than a Pogačar Stan, you have to learn to get over this and find other stuff to enjoy about the race. You have to discover another guy or six that you love because they attack at times that make no sense or have a goofy haircut.

This is easy to do once you get sucked into the sub-narratives beyond the GC. Some riders will save their own careers or their teams’ sponsorships by winning one stage, and many of them will cry like babies in the press conference.

Because the Big Result is a foregone conclusion if no one gets hurt, what you need is a vibes-based breakdown of the teams so you can figure out who you’re rooting for and what to expect from everyone besides cycling’s current God King. Below is that breakdown.

(Writing 23 headers and finding the squad announcements for each team took more time than writing the rest of this goddamn post.)

Alpecin-Deceuninck

The Sprint Train Avengers. On several occasions, you will see 6 or 7 gray jerseys go to the front and form a straight line to lead out their sprinter. The jury’s out on whether or not they have the best sprinter, but there’s no doubt about which team has the best guys at riding fast on flat ground. It’s these mfs.

Mathieu van der Poel might be the 2nd best cyclist in the world after Pogačar when it comes to one-day races on irregular terrain, but the Tour de France isn’t exactly His Thing. The first handful of stages have some chances for him to attack, though, and he’s stupidly impressive on a short, steep hill.

His co-leader, sprinter Jasper Philipsen, is one of the guys who will be fighting for green. Jasper’s had a bit of a roller coaster career. He was once called “Jasper Disaster” for the myriad ways he’d finish 2nd place or get involved in crashes. Then he dominated everyone in 2023. He was pretty good last year too. He has just one win this season. No one seems to know what kind of form he’s in. Vibes are concerned, but hopeful.

Arkéa–B&B Hotels

I don’t think I can get into promotion and relegation into this guide because it’s not as straightforward as soccer and there’s a whole fuckin’ formula. The cliffnotes version is: There are 18 teams who get a license to enter every World Tour race, teams can get relegated, and Arkéa are the current World Tour team who are most at risk of relegation.

They need UCI ranking points, and there are a lot of ways to get them. The easiest way is to win the yellow jersey, which these guys aren’t doing. What they can do, though, is win a stage or two, rack up top 10s in stages, and maybe compete for the polka dots.

Arnaud Démare is here in the role of Points Farmer. He will not win a stage unless he gets very lucky, but he can get a lot of top 10s. Kévin Vauquelin is the best candidate to compete for the polka dots or sneak a top 10 in GC. Everyone else is trying to get in breakaways and praying they can stay away. This is a strong team for Arkéa’s standing/budget and they’ll be easy to root for since they’ll be the dudes animating the race every day.

Cofidis

Much like Arkéa, Cofidis are fighting to stay in World Tour and have a bunch of dudes who are going to fight to get in breakaways. I am sorry if I offend anyone, but this has to be the most “just here” team of anyone in the race. They don’t even have a 3rd tier sprinter/climber on the Démare-Vauquelin level, and are really just trying to win one stage.

Decathlon–AG2R La Mondiale

The really fun and higher end version of “we’re just here to get in breakaways.” I think it’s possible that Felix Gall tries to fight for a high GC place, but this would be ill-advised. He’s gonna get smoked on the stage 5 flat time trial and should lose 20 minutes on purpose instead, so no one cares if he goes in breakaways for the King of the Mountains.

The rest of the riders are a really good set of different types of riders who can rotate getting in the break and competing for the stage win depending on the terrain. I’d be shocked if they didn’t win at least one stage, and they might end the race as the best team that didn’t compete for the yellow or green jersey.

EF Education-EasyPost

While I’m purely speculating about what Arkéa and Decathlon are going to do, there’s no guessing required for these mfs. Attack, attack, attack. ALLEZALLEZALLEZ. And they’ll be doing it in highlighter pink jerseys. HELL yeah.

Powless is the only Native American to ever compete at the Tour, and he pulled off arguably the coolest win of the entire season when he beat three Visma riders in a 3-on-1 finish at the Belgian one-day race Dwars door Vlaanderen. Ben Healy is the biggest psychopath in the race and will attack at any time, for any reason, no matter how unlikely a good result is. Vincenzo Albanese and Marijn van den Berg are really good versatile sprinters who will be big favorites to win a stage if they get in a breakaway. Immaculate vibes team, 11/10.

Groupama-FDJ

Speaking of ALLEZALLEZALLEZ, you will hear it yelled most in the faces of these men. They’re literally sponsored by the French lottery, and they love talking wild shit about the other French teams for not being French enough. While their icon and French hero Thibaut Pinot has retired, they’ll probably remain the most popular team on the road.

Romain Gregoire is their up and coming young star, and he’s a popular pick to win one of the hilly or medium mountain stages. Guillaume Martin-Guyonnet might go for the KOM. Paul Penhoët is points farming sprints. You are likely to see some of the others in breakaways, though I wouldn’t expect much. It’s been a tough season for most of them.

INEOS Grenadiers

Once the undisputed protagonists of this race, now decidedly mid. It is probably not a coincidence that they share an owner with Manchester United.

This is the final Tour for former champion Geraint Thomas, who will be tasked with trying to help his teammate Carlos Rodriguez to a high GC placement this time around. Filippo Ganna is one of the favorites to win the Stage 5 time trial and is very cute. Axel Laurance might be able to sneak a stage, but I wouldn’t pick him.

Idk man Ineos are just kinda… there. They exist.

Intermarché–Wanty

The best story in cycling last year was Biniam Girmay becoming not just the first Black African rider to win a stage of the Tour de France, but capturing the green jersey as well. I don’t think he’s going to repeat — the sprint field is just a lot stronger this year — but Intermarché is giving him every chance with an excellent leadout train.

Very little breakaway or KOM specialization here, they’re kinda all-in for Bini. Really just hoping he can sneak one stage.

Lidl–Trek

[deepest fucking sigh]

OK, so I’m from Wisconsin. Trek employs a lot of people in my home state. They make good bikes at a reasonable price, and a solid 50% of the bikes I see on the road around here are Treks. They also invest quite a bit into developing junior American cyclists. The current national champion, who will be wearing the stars and stripes jersey at the Tour, is on Trek. I have every reason to root for the team.

Except the U.S. national champion is this fucking guy. I will be rooting for him to get a mechanical on every stage.

OK, sorry, onto the rest of the team. They’re very likeable, as far as I can tell, and quite good at cycling! These guys are expected to have an excellent tour. Jonathan Milan is one of the sprinters in the running for the green jersey, and he’s got a good leadout train in front of him. Mattias Skjelmose could go for a top 10 in the GC or the polka dots. Thibau Nys is going to be an extremely popular pick to win a stage from the breakaway.

I don’t dislike these riders or the team or brand at all. They’re fine. But the one annoying thing is really annoying.

Movistar Team

I’m sick of getting tricked by these guys. Never again. Every single year they give you reason to think that This Is The Year they get some super impressive results and then they find a way to screw it up.

Enric Mas should top 5 GC. Pablo Castrillo or Ivan Romeo should win a stage. But I do not believe. I will never believe.

Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe

At this point I guess Primož Roglič is the luxury version of the above. He is undoubtedly one of the most accomplished cyclists of his generation. 4 Vuelta a España wins, 1 Giro di Italia, Liège–Bastogne–Liège, an Olympic gold medal, a Tour de France podium, and 3 Tour stages. It’s a career that 99.99% of cyclists would love to have.

But he’s only disappointed at the Tour since getting shocked by Pogačar on the final day in 2020, and I suspect that his team knows that he is not the best version of himself anymore. I’m not clowning him; the team composition tells the story.

Half of the roster is dedicated to a sprint train for Jordi Meeus, who is not even one of the top favorites for sprints. The vibes are perhaps a bit somber if you are a Roglič fan; disappointment seems inevitable. On his day, he is still one of the most talented and entertaining riders in the field, and we’re all just hoping for one last burst of magic. But I suspect that he will finish behind his own teammate, the up-and-coming white jersey contender, Florian Lipowitz.

Soudal–Quick-Step

These teams are listed in alphabetical order for the World Tour squads. But it might feel like I have listed them in such a way to do continuous narratives, because Soudal–Quick-Step is kinda the same deal as Red Bull. Instead of putting their full force behind their leader, they are hedging.

Even if general classification contender Remco Evenepoel was the best version of himself, this would be justified. On form, Tim Merlier is probably the best sprinter in the world this season, and I’ve got him as the slight favorite over Milan, Philipsen and Girmay to win the green jersey. To not back him with an experienced and powerful train would be stupid as hell.

But the absence of some of Quick-Step’s best climbers suggests to me that they know Remco — who suffered a serious injury in preseason this spring and looked well off the pace in a warm-up race 3 weeks ago — is not the stone cold lock for 3rd place in the GC that he would be if he was at his best. I hope I’m wrong and that he has a great Tour, because he’s one of the best personalities in the sport.

Team Bahrain Victorious

Hey, it’s a team where I have no idea WTF is going to happen! That’s fun!

Santiago Buitrago and Lenny Martinez are theoretically co-leaders who could both challenge for top 10 in GC? Maybe one of them goes for it, while the other loses time on purpose in week 1 to go for the KOM? The lack of clarity around that situation makes them pretty fun. So do the breakaway capabilities of Fred Wright and Matej Mohoric. Sprinter Phil Bauhaus isn’t on the best form, but he’s good for one shock win a season.

If your vibe is mysterious, this is the team for you.

Team Picnic–PostNL

Currently ahead of Cofidis and Arkéa by a hair in the relegation race, and with a squad that I think has a very good chance of moving them up the rankings.

Oscar Onley might be a KOM favorite if he really commits to losing time in the first week and going in every break over the last two. Pavel Bittner isn’t an elite sprinter, but has shown himself capable of doing some points farming with top 10s. Lots of the others are good at getting into breakaways and competitive in reduced field sprints. They’re going to animate the race and I think get some surprise results.

Team Jayco–AlUla

While some teams have a pretty clear strategy for what type of team they want to be, Jayco went with “pick our 8 best riders.”

Dylan Groenewegen is a good 2nd tier sprinter who could definitely win a stage if other guys screw up, and he’s got a solid train in front of him. Mauro Schmid and Luke Plapp are excellent breakaway stage win candidates. Ben O’Connor is good enough to finish top 10 in GC, but he’s going to have a tough go of it with Eddie Dunbar as his only true support climber. These are 8 good riders, but I am also very concerned they come out of this Tour with nothing.

UAE Team Emirates XRG

The fucking Death Star. The best rider in the world and the best support team possible. João Almeida might finish 3rd as a domestique. Adam Yates has finished 3rd as a domestique before. Any of these dudes could win stages if they weren’t working for Pogačar.

Vibes here are determined by whether you’re a Hater or a Witness Greatness type of sports watcher. These dudes are amazing at what they do and I respect the hell out of them. I will also be rooting for them to fuck up.

Visma–Lease a Bike

The second best team in the race, and the only one with any hope of ending Pogačar’s reign of terror. Jonas Vingegaard has beaten Pogačar at the Tour de France twice before, but after 2023, Pogi switched trainers and learned that he has to eat food during the race if he wants to avoid getting tired. Last year, Vingegaard was merely the best human rider, getting slapped around by an absolute alien.

Like UAE, Visma have an incredible collection of support riders who could win stages and be the leaders of other teams if they weren’t here. Simon Yates just won the Giro di Italia in May. Sepp Kuss has won the Vuelta a España. Matteo Jorgenson has won the prestigious one-week race Paris-Nice twice and could definitely top 5 a grand tour if he was a leader. Wout van Aert is one of the great all-rounders in the history of the sport. Edoardo Affini and Victor Campenaerts are tractors with a V8 in them. Tiesj Benoot is one of the sport’s great selfless teammates.

All of the above is absolute fucking cope because there’s nothing anyone can do to stop Pogačar if he is at his best. You will hear a lot of hemming and hawing by the commentators about Visma’s tactics to avoid admitting this. Phil Liggett and Bob Roll will ask if there’s anything they could have done. Christian Vande Velde will respond to their questions with the truth, which is: No.

XDS Astana Team

Coming into this season, it looked like Astana would need to have an amazing Tour to avoid relegation. They’ve now passed all of Arkéa, Cofidis and Picnic in the standings by strategically stacking 2nd tier races and points farming the shit out of weak fields. This means the Tour is all gravy.

This is the vibes preview, and no one’s vibing like these guys. They can just try shit. They can have fun out there. Maybe they sneak a stage or two? Who cares. They’ve already outsmarted the competition.

Israel-Premier Tech

And now we’re into the Continental Pro teams, the 5 second-tier outfits who have either earned their way into the Tour by racking up points last season, or gotten invited by the organizers. IPT are the former, and man… they exist, I guess.

This isn’t even close to the strongest team they could send. Because IPT are in a good position to get promoted, they’re kinda hedging their bets and stacking their stars on races that will have weaker fields. They have a bunch of dudes who could theoretically win a breakaway, but no one I’d pick.

Lotto

A long-running team sponsored by the Belgian lottery, Lotto are the other team that earned their spot in the race, and that is currently in a good position to get promoted. But some injuries and illnesses to star riders have them in a tough spot coming into this tour.

Under normal circumstances, versatile sprinter Arnaud De Lie and punchy climber Lennert Van Eetvelt would be popular picks to win stages. But De Lie had to DNF or DNS a handful of races this spring, and Van Eetvelt got hit by a driver during training while recovering from a knee injury. Vibes are: rancid.

Team TotalEnergies

Congratulations, you are here because your sponsor is one of the biggest and most important companies in France. TotalEnergies will send someone in the breakaway every stage because that is what they are here for. I don’t think they’ll win anything. It’ll be a pretty popular win if they pull an upset.

Tudor Pro Cycling Team

Also here because of their sponsor. Tudor was always getting in as one of the big sponsors of the Tour de France, and it doesn’t hurt that they have extremely popular Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe. He’s won a ton of big races and spent many days in yellow at the Tour, but he is sadly a bit washed at this point. He’ll definitely attack on a few hilly stages for the peak ALLEZALLEZALLEZ moments of the race before he is passed by faster riders.

Swiss rider Marc Hirschi and Australian Michael Storer are the two guys on this team who I think could actually win a stage. These guys will make the race fun. Extremely likeable.

Uno-X Mobility

God look at Magnus Cort’s glorious mustache. What a man.

This is unfortunately a really elite leadout train without the elite sprinter to go with it. All of Cort, Stian Fredheim, Jonas Abrahamsen and Søren Wærenskjold are capable of winning races at slightly lower levels, but I don’t think they’re going to manage a W at the Tour in any kind of big bunch. However, if any of them can get into a small breakaway, they’re all likely to be the fastest finisher in that break.

Predictions, because why the fuck not

Yellow: Tadej Pogačar

Podium: Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida

Green: Tim Merlier

Polka dots: Santiago Buitrago

White: Florian Lipowitz

Most fun stage winner: Neilson Powless

Most fun stage winner if you hate Americans: Bastien Tronchon

Hey Kim, I liked this, where can I read more of your writing?

I write about European men’s football at The Transfer Flow.